According to a gamesindustry.biz article, Cindy Armstrong, Webzen America's CEO, predicted massive multiplayer online games (or MMOGs) on consoles would overtake MMOGs on PCs in the next decade.
The article really doesn't do a good job of explaining why she would think that way though. Just because more people are going to be spending money on console gaming rather than PC gaming doesn't mean the same people who play consoles would play MMOs. The argument seems baseless and meant to grab headlines, but just because there isn't a base reason for it now, doesn't mean it couldn't end up being true I guess.
I do agree with her that expanding into new markets and innovative game design are important for any new MMOs to be successful, but I don't think anyone can make any sort of accurate prediction as to what will happen with console MMOs as there is no evidence to really support a line of thinking. I mean, the MMOGs on a console that come to mind are Everquest Online Adventures and Final Fantasy 11. Both are on the Playstation 2 and FF11 is also on the Xbox 360. Besides these two games, I can't think of any other truly subscription based massively multiplayer games on a console. People keep touting they are coming and they no doubt will, but currently there are so few there is no track record to point to as a road map to future to say if they'll do better or worse than their PC counter-parts.
I can make the same sort of baseless claims too. I mean... If I were to 'make a prediction', I'd say that console gamers probably won't be all that receptive to MMOs unless they're done to fit with the console experience of being able to play for an hour or so and get out. Consoles are all about dropping in, having fun, and getting out; games with more epic long term with no sort of casual experience are getting to be more the exception than the rule. This is the same reason why you don't see as many clans or guilds for console games. The games that breed teams that play games certain games into the ground (like counter-strike) are more the exception than the rule on consoles. At least my comments aren't completely baseless, although I'm not gonna say that there won't be that MMO that captures the imagination of console gamers, I just think it's unlikely.
Are we going to see MMOs be stronger on the PC or Consoles in the future? Who are more dedicated, PC Gamers or Console Gamers? Did I forget any other console MMOs? Am I off my rocker?